By Michael R. Shannon

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell provided state and national Republicans with a useful and timely lesson in leadership when he vetoed the redistricting bill last week. Complaints emanating from disgruntled Republican House of Delegates members regarding the veto only serve to highlight their failure to pay attention and exercise leadership on their own behalf.

From the beginning of the redistricting process McDonnell signaled he was not willing to look favorably on business as usual where incumbents protect themselves at the expense of voters.

The strongest indication of McDonnell’s frame of mind came when he appointed a deeply flawed bi–partisan redistricting commission charged with drawing new lines independently of the Virginia House and Senate.

Although it completely ignored McDonnell’s commission maps, the House finally produced a truly bi–partisan design that attracted the votes of incumbent protectors from both sides of the aisle, including a majority of Democrats.

On the other hand, the Senate lead by Barack Obama, excuse me, Harry Reid, I mean Richard Saslaw (D–Gerrymander Republicans at all costs) gave birth to a bill that was so bad not one Republican supported it.

In his veto message McDonnell commented, “While the House plan keeps the number of split localities relatively static, the Senate plan significantly increases the number of times localities are split as compared to either other proposed plans or the current redistricting law.”

McDonnell’s veto of the combined bill meant both House and Senate plans were rendered null and void, but this was an imminently avoidable outcome. Del. S. Chris Jones (R–Suffolk) who was in charge of the House plan, admitted in an interview that he had initially wanted separate House and Senate redistricting bills, but Saslaw insisted on submitting a single, combined bill. Rather than resist, the House caved in to his demand. Somehow that sounds familiar.

The difference between the House and Senate approach is that Saslaw was prepared to fight for the interests of his party and Jones was not. Saslaw wanted a redistricting map that did the maximum amount of damage possible to Republican incumbents and GOP attempts to gain seats in November’s election. He knew that by submitting a combined bill to McDonnell it would be harder for the governor to veto the Senate plan, since it would also veto the House plan.

Del. Jones should have called Saslaw’s bluff and told him the House will run the House’s business and it will submit an individual bill. But as a leader he failed to lead, so his caucus is now paying the price for his failure.

McDonnell’s veto is not without risks for he — like Republicans in the US House and their recent budget bill — is facing a deadline with unpredictable consequences. If Virginia is going to adhere to the current timeline with qualifying closing on June 15 and the primary scheduled for Aug. 23, the redistricting bill must be submitted very shortly to the U.S. Justice Department for a 60–day approval review.

This is because 45 years after the passage of the Voting Rights Act and 20 years after Virginia elected a black governor and almost three years after Virginia gave all its electoral votes to a black Presidential candidate, the feds are still watching whitey to make sure he is not keeping the black man down.

If Senate Democrats had continued to fight the governor the entire redistricting process would have been thrown into the courts where the final maps will be drawn by sharpie–wielding judges, the results of which will be unpredictable.

Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said in the Washington Post that possibly for the first time in history, “They are literally ceding their fate to an unknown judge or judges. Both sides have gone to the brink and they realize it’s equally dangerous for them.”

But is a risk McDonnell is, to his credit, was willing to take. And sure enough his veto was initially met with Saslaw blustering that the Senate wouldn’t change a comma on the bill, much less move a boundary line, and daring McDonnell to veto it again.

Saslaw crumbled when he saw McDonnell wasn’t going to be buffaloed and now he has produced an improved Senate map that attracted Republican support.

Political leadership is not a risk–free occupation. There was no guarantee that McDonnell would win this confrontation. But now Democrats know he is a man who intends to be taken seriously in a negotiation and won’t be stampeded by a bluff.

That’s a lesson Capitol Hill Republicans need to take to heart.

Michael R. Shannon is a public relations, advertising and political consultant with experience around the globe. He is also a popular speaker and can be reached at michael–shannon@comcast.net.

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Two Sundays ago, Bob McDonnell sat behind me in church, and he didn’t appear the least bit suicidal. McDonnell didn’t sing too loud or try to address the congregation when he was introduced. That went a long way toward winning my vote.

It was an especially impressive performance when you realize he’d helped torpedo his own campaign only a few days earlier, when he told the Washington Post where to find his master’s thesis from CBN University (Regent University).

I’ve been trying to analyze his decision and I can’t find a rational explanation. He’s in an interview with Washington Post reporters who are aggressively secular; view Christian social doctrine as bigoted, hateful and backward; voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama; and believe the Virginia’s governor’s race is a referendum on Obama.

McDonnell’s a devout Christian, who attended a university founded by the Post’s favorite religious fanatic: Pat Robertson. His thesis is almost 100 pages and filled with conservative Christian beliefs perfect for taking out of context.

Note to Bob: Let the Post do its own research. Or why not just tell the Post you used to go clubbing with Mark Sanford and be done with it?

Even Michelle Obama had enough sense to try and restrict access to her master’s thesis until after the election – and she’s only the candidate’s wife.

As far as the Post is concerned, VA Republicans are the gift that keeps on giving. First George Allen and now McDonnell. Here’s what McDonnell hath wrought: this area is filled with individuals and groups who oppose everything he stands for, but this opposition is not newsworthy because it’s so predicable.

Feminists, abortionists and homosexuals don’t like McDonnell. Ho Hum.

But Bob’s decision to play librarian gives the Post an excuse to gin up a “controversy” and repeatedly showcase these opinions, as if they were newsworthy, by using a campaign development from a student thesis 20 years ago! It’s a win-win: the Post gets to relive the Allen-Webb campaign and cliched liberals get to recycle their failed ideology.

What the McDonnell campaign should have done was prepare for the potential discovery by putting views from 20 years ago into context for today, and recruit a group of third-party spokespersons prepared to answer any attack.

Then if the thesis surfaces, the campaign is ready to go with prepared remarks and advocates. What you don’t do is hand the enemy a loaded gun, and then act surprised when you get shot.

They tell a story about Huey Long running for governor of Louisiana. He was giving a populist stem-winder in Baton Rouge and then later in the week he was campaigning in more conservative Shreveport. There Huey took a position that was completely opposite.

Everything was fine, except that a traveling salesman had heard Huey in each location. The salesman demanded an immediate explanation.

Huey looked at the salesman and said, “Well, I was lying in Baton Rouge.”

Which is a better response than what McDonnell is using now.

Bob spends 90 minutes on the phone with the death panel at the Post, saying his views have changed. Plus he’s not one of those scary Republicans, because he’s agreed with Tim Kaine and Obama; and some of his best friends are interior decorators.

Great. Now McDonnell looks weak, uncertain and wishy-washy.

Former VA GOP Chairman Pat McSweeney gave McDonnell sage advice when he said you can lose votes by taking a stand and offending people; you can avoid taking a stand and alienate people who want a leader; and you can backpedal from beliefs you previously held. But God help the candidate who does all three.

McDonnell’s answer should have been:

“This is 2009 and not 1989. As governor I want to create jobs and economic opportunity for men and women alike. Although the ideal situation for young children is a two-parent family where the mother works as the homemaker and the father works as the breadwinner, life is not always ideal, and families are often faced with a situation where both parents are forced work outside the home. And that’s why women held management positions in my attorney general’s office, women are key parts of my campaign, and women will play a crucial role in the future of Virginia when I’m governor.”

Then if Deeds and his media enablers want to dwell on homosexual marriage, abortion and other social issues, McDonnell simply refuses to answer hypothetical questions – and adds that hysterical hyperventilating about his “secret plan” is silly. He has a record in the legislature and the attorney general’s office that shows exactly how he will perform as governor.

If McDonnell runs his race on the agenda set by the Post he will lose. If he lets the Post decide which issue positions are allowed, he will lose. It’s not too late to do it right – and to remember:

You don’t have to have all the votes to win an election. You just need enough to win.

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© Michael R. Shannon

Michael R. Shannon is a Virginia-based public relations and media consultant with MANDATE: Message, Media & Public Relations who has worked in over 75 elections on three continents and a handful of islands.

 

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