The Paulson Bailout, proposed at $700 Billion, has now grown in the Senate to $850 Billion with the addition of absolutely ridiculous “sweeteners” like free bicycles and tax breaks to wooden arrow makers!  The Senate has completely lost its way.

But before the House considers, or worse, ACCEPTS any permutation of the Paulson Bailout Plan, they must remember that you can’t make a silk purse from a sow’s ear… and no amount of lipstick will sell this stinker of a porker to the American people!

Even without the additional $150 in pork, think about this:

How much is $700 Billion?
More than the government spent COMBINED in Fiscal 2006 for:
Medicaid    $180.6 in Billions
Education     $118.6
Health     $ 63.9
Transportation   $ 70.2
Veterans Benefits   $ 70.0
Community Development   $ 54.5
Food & Nutrition Assistance  $ 53.9
Justice System    $ 41.0
Housing Assistance   $ 38.3
TOTAL:     $691.0

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2006

According to CNN August 14, there were 750,000 homes currently in foreclosure. In addition to hurting the homeowners, these troubled assets set the value of the lenders’ capitol plummeting due to the “Mark to Market” Accounting rules.

$700 Billion divided by 750,000 homes = 933,333 PER HOME!

As ridiculous as this might be, and I’m not actually proposing it (just using it to illustrate JUST HOW bad the Paulson plan is!), why don’t we just give each troubled homeowner $100,000 toward their mortgage to keep them in their home and reduce or eliminate their balance? We can then refinance any remaining balances for 15 years at 7% fixed.

This would cost taxpayers only $75 Billion, the homeowners get to keep their homes and reduce or eliminate their house payments. The banks get instant liquidity. Balances under $100,000 are paid off and come off the lenders’ books! The lenders get to convert bad loans over $100,000 balance to smaller, better risk loans at a nice fat 7% and suddenly have VALUE again.

The only loser… the guy who bought a home he can afford, and who continues making his payments, on time.
Of course, this would be an unconscionable giveaway bailout, giving taxpayer money to people who bought houses they couldn’t afford… and yet it’s more measured, more reasonable and more likely to WORK than the Paulson plan… which does nothing to address the cause of the problem: the CRA, Mark to Market, and corruption at Fannie & Freddie, which MUST be dismantled or at least downsized!  And it doesn’t help the people who took loans they couldn’t afford either!  It bails out the lenders for making bad loans and taking unacceptable risks.

But… we have to do SOMETHING!!  Or do we?

We’re told that inaction will melt the economy.  But it won’t!  And WHAT does the Government do WELL anyway?  Do you trust them to fix the problem?  Most often (and in this case), Government IS the problem; see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU6fuFrdCJY&feature=bz301 and www.youtube.com/watch?v=fa0agm711PQ.

No bailout has passed yet.   The day the House failed to pass it, the market dropped 777 points.  The doomsday crowd went berserk!  Yet when you realize that the market was down over 300 points BEFORE the vote, the failure of the bill only accounts for a 400 odd point drop.  Interestingly, the very next day, the market bounced back with the 3rd largest point daily gain in history… and essentially nullified that post-vote loss!  Then the Senate passed their pork-laden version of the bailout, and the market dropped precipitously again!  I guess you could say the market reacted NEGATIVELY to the bailout!!

So how does it affect “Main Street”? You can still go down to the bank and get a home loan or a car loan… IF YOU QUALIFY.  Folks are still driving to work at jobs they still have, in cars they still own, burning gas that they still pay too much for.

Remember EF Hutton?  When they spoke, people listened… till they stopped listening.  Where are they now?  Do you care?

Remember Smith Barney?  They made money the old fashioned way… they earned it!  They’re not earning much now, are they?  Did their evaporation off the face of the earth hurt you?

The fact is that brokerages and even banks have failed before and will again.  YOUR deposits are insured and you retain access to your funds.  YOUR stock assets in your portfolio are YOURS and not your brokers.  If your broker goes under, you still own your stocks.  Find another broker to handle your trades!

I recently proposed a workable plan that would bolster confidence in the markets and ease the capitalization/credit/valuation problems without socializing the markets or giving corporate welfare to Wall Street or handing over inordinate power to Paulson.  Read it here.

If our lawmakers would consider implementing such a plan our economy would improve without mortgaging our future generations to throw $700 Billion or more at it.

For too long Fannie/Freddie and Wall Street have played fast and loose, always with the understanding that if things turned sour, the Government would come to the rescue.  They’ve behaved (even if we exclude corruption and cooking books) like spoiled children who act irresponsibly and get in trouble frequently, only to look to their parents to bail them out – and their expectations keep getting met!  The best thing such a parent can do is put a stop to it – and institute some “tough love”.  When they begin to stand firm, saying “NO, you made your bed, now bear your consequences”, that is the beginning of the maturing of the child.  It’s time that the Wall Street institutions begin to grow up.

Will some firms fail?  Yes.  And they’ll be scooped up at bargain prices by firms who HAVE investable capital!  Will people lose jobs?  Yes.  Will they get other jobs?  If they have marketable skills, they will!  Will the “Market” handle their absence… sure.  The services they provided will be offered by other, more innovative, more competitive and more successful enterprises.  THAT is our capitalistic market-driven system… and when ALLOWED to work, it DOES.

Copyright © 2008 by Doug Edelman
 Print This Post

Powered by Stumble! for WordPress